News Item Dated: 13 December 2002
From: Tech Update  (12/06/02); Linden, Alexander

The development of simpler, intuitive, and flexible computer interfaces will spur the integration of technology and everyday life, and technologies that could usher in a new age of ubiquitous computing include input interfaces, output interfaces, and advanced interaction metaphors. Gartner predicts that display screens will proliferate everywhere, thanks to the near-term development of products such as digital paper, organic light-emitting diodes, and light-emitting polymers, which could supplant mobile screens and paper displays; by 2012, CRT-based screen manufacturing will likely be phased out by liquid crystal displays and alternative technologies, while screens that display dynamic data will be installed in new areas.

Although use of the keyboard and mouse will account for 95 percent of human-to-computer information input through 2012, handwriting and speech recognition technology will enhance pen-based interfaces, and over 70 percent of new PDAs will support such technology by 2005. IT executives with longer-term strategies should consider these options as early as next year, while speech recognition is likely to have a greater impact on business-to-consumer transactions. Forecasts indicate a transition from the "push" mode of general information supply to a "pull" mode by 2012 as concepts such as personalization, knowledge mapping and taxonomies, search functions, and Active Alert come into their own and enterprises gain a clearer picture of users' and clients' specific information needs at various touchpoints.

The computer's ability to pre-select options based on what it knows about user requirements will streamline user choices. However, a dearth of clear industrialization surrounding interfaces will cause interface design to trail overall computer capabilities. Advanced user interface metaphors will lead to better and more rapid input for decision-making in the intra-enterprise domain, though their impact will be more accurately measured in the customer domain.