Publication Summary


Berry, M. W., R. O. Flamm, B. C. Hazen, and R. L. MacIntyre. 1996. Lucas: A System for Modeling Land-Use Change. IEEE Computational Science & Engineering 3:1, pp. 24-35.


Ecological dynamics in human-influenced landscapes are strongly affected by socioeconomic factors that influence land-use decision making. Incorporating these factors into a spatially-explicit landscape-change model requires integrating multidisciplinary information. In order to study the effects of land use on landscape structure in selected watersheds, the Land-Use Change Analysis System or LUCAS for UNIX-based workstations is developed. The map layers used by LUCAS can be derived from remotely-sensed images, census and ownership maps, topographical maps, and outputs from econometric models. These map layers are stored, displayed, and analyzed using the public-domain Geographic Information System (GIS) known as GRASS. Simulations using LUCAS generate sequential maps of land cover showing the amount and distribution of land-cover change. LUCAS may be used to assess many landscape issues, including the importance of landscape elements in meeting biodiversity, conservation, or forest productivity goals or for enhancing long-term landscape integrity. The object-oriented design of LUCAS (written in C++) will greatly facilitate its use in the horizontal integration of forest responses to environmental stresses and disturbances for the second module of the Integrated Modeling Project (IMP). LUCAS is being adapted to incorporate the frequency distributions of forest responses to multiple environmental stresses into land-use change simulations.